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In the lead-up to this week’s Democratic National Convention, a Chicago mutual aid group began stockpiling toiletries, sleeping bags and tents. The group was anticipating that Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott might send buses with migrants from the southern border, in an effort to create a spectacle and tie Democrats to immigration dysfunction.
The buses never arrived. The Texas program that has sent more than 120,000 migrants to Democratic-led cities across the country since 2022 has not dispatched any buses in about two months, according to The New York Times — despite Gov. Abbott’s vow to keep the effort going.
One reason is that fewer migrants are trying to cross the border. The U.S. Border Patrol reported about 56,000 encounters in July, a far cry from the record-high 250,000 reported in December. That owes at least in part to a June executive order by President Joe Biden that stiffened border enforcement, including shutting down the asylum system anytime crossings reach a certain weekly threshold.
Dara Lind, a senior fellow at the pro-immigration nonprofit American Immigration Council, said that in theory, the executive order would drive down encounters by creating less of an incentive for people to cross. Lind stressed, however, that migration patterns are complex, and that a number of factors, including hot summer temperatures, can impact crossing attempts. “The U.S. loves to talk about immigration as if the only relevant factor is U.S. policy, and that's just not true,” Lind said.
Migrants who arrive at the border are also being expelled at a much higher rate under the new Biden policy. The result is a startling decrease in the number of people being released into the country, from more than 190,000 in December 2023 to about 12,000 in July.
Experts say U.S.-supported efforts by the Mexican government to crack down on migrant transit there have also fueled the decrease in crossing attempts. Several migrants speaking to The Associated Press described brutal behavior by Mexican law enforcement, including beatings and extortion.
This week, another component of the Biden Administration’s effort to outsource immigration enforcement kicked into gear as Panama deported 29 Colombians, presumably on their way to the U.S. border. The effort — fully funded by the U.S. — seeks to discourage migrants from crossing the Darien Gap, a harrowing stretch of jungle between Panama and Colombia.
A pair of recent reports suggest that the government isn’t doing a great job of keeping track of migrants who do make it to the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) failed to count nearly 42% of the people detained by the agency between 2019 and 2022, according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office.
Meanwhile, according to the Department of Homeland Security's internal watchdog, the agency is “not able to account” for some of the more than 30,000 unaccompanied migrant children who did not show up for immigration court hearings over the past five years. Without knowing where children are, “ICE has no assurance [they] are safe from trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor,” wrote Inspector General Joseph Cuffari in a report to Congress this week.
Immigration and privacy advocates are troubled by research on one high-tech way to keep better track of migrant children: facial recognition. Last week, MIT Technology Review reported on government efforts to develop facial recognition algorithms that could identify migrant children years later as they age.
While there was no busing of migrants to Chicago this week, immigration and border security was front and center at the Democratic convention as the party looked to address one of its biggest weaknesses with voters in public opinion polls. Political commentators observed that the party embraced a “tougher” message or moved to the political right on immigration, ratifying a party platform that supports quicker deportations of economic migrants and stricter rules for political asylum.
“Gone are the heartfelt testimonies from undocumented immigrants, the repudiation of Trump-era policies, and the calls for better treatment of migrants and expansion of asylum protections,” wrote Vox’s Christian Paz, contrasting the 2024 DNC to programming from the prior three conventions.
At the same time, many speakers leaned into the idea of the U.S. as a nation of immigrants, enriched by their presence. Those immigrants included both parents of presidential nominee Kamala Harris. Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy — one of the architects of a bipartisan immigration bill that died in Congress this summer — offered a clear example of the needle Democrats were attempting to thread. “We can be a nation of immigrants who love their country and a nation with a secure border,” Murphy said.
While the party’s apparent shift is dismaying to immigration and human rights advocates on the left flank, many are holding their tongues for the moment. “It’s the fear of Trump,” pro-immigrant advocate Erika Andiola told Politico.
In his campaign, Donald Trump has called for not only restoring the immigration efforts of his presidency, like border wall construction and rapid expulsions, but also for a program to round up all undocumented people in the country, place them in camps and deport them.
On Thursday, Trump campaigned at the border between Arizona and Mexico, and claimed, without evidence, that Harris wants “open borders” and would allow 100 million people to cross into the country illegally if elected.
At the peak rate of border crossings last year, it would take about 50 years for 100 million people to enter the U.S.
Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated how many years it would take for 100 million people to cross the border at the annual peak rate.
